[Snarf]

[ QUOTE ]
He forgot one of the key psychological pieces of the puzzle. Before I pushed in he started to put out a bet of 2000 (out of turn, he forgot about me, go figure) to which I responded with the preemptive all-in.

I tend to over play strong hands because I play very aggressively anyways so I still get action on them. You're never really sure what I'm going to have until you see the cards (*though I don't slowplay to often, no need to).

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First post Wombat. Nice. Glad I lured you in by failing to mention that part of the hand. ;-)

In all honesty - I didn't really think your bet AFTER my mis-bet meant all that much. I mean... I could've made that same raise with AQ or 99 (which I'm NOT calling your all-in with) as with the TWO hands I would call your bet with.

So as far as not understanding EV...I think I do understand it to an extent - though admittedly not enough. As far as the math goes, I can approximate well enough, but lack the understanding to do the precise math for the circumstances but heres my thinking on the hand EV wise:

the 900 stack had an ace - and one over. Garunteed. (read/player based knowledge)

This makes the likelihood that Wombat has two aces less. He could have two kings. But AK is more likely, and 99-JJ is just as likely as KK.

Sure he watched me almost bet/isolation raise out of turn by accident....but a huge iso-raise all-in could be anything from KK or that rare AA praying to lure me in in case I had QQ or KK (if he had AA) to having a mid-pair hoping to scare me out of me two overs.... with the latter being more likely.

Now that I've tipped the scales in favor of me having the best hand at the moment...I'm looking at - worst case scenario then - of being against a medium ace and ace king. With one of the aces gone the odds tip even more in my favor... So I figure to be 58ish to win the huge pot and basically seal the tourney right there...

IF not...I'll still have a chip stack to play with...and as Wombat said - he plays very aggressively and I figure for at least one easy double up on my 1800 chips at point later in time if I lose....

So...my lack of specific math aside...what part of EV am I apparantly missing here?

Not being sarcastic or anything...thats why I posted the hand....

I called....but would like some help analyzing 'why' for EV reasons a fold would be best there.