[PinkSteel]

Great post; my most recent play shift near the end. First I'm going to agree with you in lots of words....

Sklansky's TOP chapter on game theory isn't just about river value bets vs. bluffs. I think after level 2 thinking, straight game theory and probabalistic play take over on every street.

The recent talk is about continuation bets. If you *always* continuation bet on the flop, that may be decent play against a non-thinking opponent. But any thinking villain is going to catch on and try to snap you off. So what do you do? Well, first, you go through level 1 and 2 thinking, evaluating preflop play and putting your opponent on a range.

But on the flop, precisely in accordance with game theory, you have to mix up your play to play optimally. So you check occasionally, either with best hand (seldom) or nothing (more often). When you check, you sometimes check/call, perhaps more often check/raise.

The key is seeing that, even after level 1 and 2 thinking, there will nearly always be an optimal mixture of plays, not a 100% best play all the time. Obviously the percentage distribution changes, and obviously in some situations there is a slam dunk best play all the time. But the continuation bet example is, I think, a good one for demonstrating how important a mixture is for max EV.

Along the lines you mentioned, I see more and more players -- at $25NL -- playing tight and apparently set-mining. So in late position, I've been playing more connectors, suited or non. Fewer people pay off flushes big, but straights are a gold mine; no one ever gives you credit for the flopped straight, especially if you're playing a 1-gapper. So I'm looser in late position, and if I don't catch something on the flop that can beat a set or draw to such, I release to aggression. It's elephant hunting -- the hits are seldom, but they're big scores every time, and I think more than make up for the lost limps.