[napawino]

[ QUOTE ]
Will someone please explain to me, as I asked earlier, why you take the odds for a flush draw or straight draw to the river on the flop, but not this? I am assuming that you guys look for 2-1 to call a flush draw right? That gives you 33% and it will hit roughly 35% of the time. However, if you take it only to the turn I think it hits, sorry from memory, about 19% of the time meaning that you should have roughly 4-1 odds to call the flop. This seems wrong to me. Help?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a common misunderstanding. You should be using the odds at THIS decision point, not including all the future decision points – unless there will be no more decisions.

So… If you were to go all-in for your last $10 on the flop call, you’re going to see the river anyway, so you should consider the odds to the river. (~11-1 for the set in this case, ~2-1 for a flush, ~2.5-1 for an open-ender, etc.)

But… Since you’re going to have to pay more to see the river if you miss on the turn, you have two choices:
1) Count only the odds for the turn. 15-1 pot odds; 22-1 odds of hitting or
2) Count all the future bets in your odds & use the “odds to the river”. You might estimate a cap on the flop, two bets on the turn ($25), so your odds will be something like: $25 (eventually) into a pot of $240 by the end of the turn, or a little less than 10-1. Of course this involves a lot of assumptions and introduces the possibility that everyone will fold but one on the turn – killing your odds. It also ignores the fact that you may be drawing nearly dead on the flop & that your 5 may give someone a better hand or redraws. (Probably not likely here.)

This same analysis would hold for all draws.

Although it would be a whole other discussion, you have to also consider implied odds – the odds considering the money not yet in the pot that someone will pay you when you do hit and they don’t fold. That is very read-dependent, but 55 should be fairly disguised on this board if you do hit it.

In general you can add something for every “calling station will pay me till the bitter end” player to account for implied odds, but I’m sure others will have different opinions about exactly how to count this. The No-Limit Forum will have much more detailed discussions on implied odds relating to the stack sizes of your opponents & the relative disguise of your hand if you hit. Look there if you’re interested in a more advanced, detailed discussion.

Napawino