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Old 10-15-2005, 01:55 PM
Pat Southern Pat Southern is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 30
Default Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 River

Obviously any bet will commit us, and with the size of the pot I can't imagine any other bet than allin. So the question is if there is value in betting. We are not going to get a better hand to fold, every full house, flush (although QTd is the only possible flush hand I see), straight is calling us, so we have no folding equity. Since we can't be raised after this bet it only needs to win 51% of the time that it is called to be +EV. The range of calling hands I would put BB on (that have made it this far) would be AJ, KJ, QT, JJ, KK, AA, AK, AQ, AT. Although I dont see villian checking the river with a full house, so I'd eliminate JJ, KK, AA, AJ, KJ from his calling range. That leaves QT vs AQ, AT and AK is a chop. Theres 16 ways to make QT and 16 ways to make AQ or AT. So that leads me to the conclusion that it really doesnt matter either way in terms of chipEV, but throwing in the possibility that he is getting cute with a FH, and if a decision is neutral I'm taking the one that leaves me with some chips, I check behind.
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