Re: Preflop confusion
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(i like to compare similar hands in the same spot and see how close the decision is). given your pokerstove analysis TT is indeed a 3 bet and 88 indeed a call.
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I also like to compare similar hands or similar flops and see where one play turns into another. Could you explain why TempusFugit's analysis means 88 is a call? It seems to me that the higher the pair, the more good flops, the more justification there is for giving the BB a chance to get in the action and to play a pot with him in as well.
Calling with the medium pairs before the flop is less attractive. The lower the pair the more important initiative becomes so you can take down boards on the flop or turn where UTG+3 misses but the flop would be too scary to put action in as a caller, with a smaller pot to boot.
The other issue that TempusFugit brings up, that the implied odds are against us, also suggests that if we play the medium pairs we need to be 3-betting them. On many of the boards where we have the best hand it will be unclear to us and that plus our poor position means our opponent will be value betting more effectively than we are and we may end up laying down the best hand. It is better to get the value in when we have our best shot at it. Sure it's possible for UTG+3 to take some pots away from us when we 3-bet and BB calls but I would guess that we lose even more boards when we call and the BB comes in a higher % of the time and we are often looking to dodge 3+ overcards instead of 2.
I also don't see how calling in the SB gives you "relative positional power". Yes, you act after the pf raiser who likely auto bets the flop but before the BB, making it difficult to trap him into a mistake even when you make a big hand. The BB has to call two cold at some point or you have to play very passively. This alone makes calling before the flop with any pair less appealing. We are not going to get that much value out of the BB no matter how bad he plays with a mediocre hand that will rarely improve on uncertain boards when he is last to act after the likely flop bettor.
I understand that the equity analysis may suggest calling with pairs lower than 99 but the other reasons given push our play to a raise if we are going to get involved. I know J_V has said many times that a raise or fold situation is rarely the case but I think hands like 88 and 77 in this spot would be an example.
regards,
raisins
P.S. I also see this situation as different from calling in the SB when there is a CO/Button raise. You are facing a much wider hand range in the steal and your opponent is placing you on a wide hand range as well. The benefit of having a third player in to get a more honest reaction from the LP player is not as important as in J_V's hand.
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