Re: Did villain play this wrong, or did I?
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If he's got AQ he's getting 8-1 on the turn and needs about 11-1 with about four outs assuming he thinks you have an overpair. If he's got K10o he's getting the odds to call the turn. His river play looks like an aggressive AQ, or K10. He can only have AQ three ways and can have K10 16 ways but I think he would have capped the flop with K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] so he's got 15 ways to beat you, while you beat 3. It costs you one to win 14 on the river and you're good 1 in 5 times assuming he plays AQ and K10 the same way here so a call is +ev.
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you are taking into account villain's flop play, which is good, but you're completely ignoring that he led the turn after being 3-bet on the flop. this just doesn't happen very often against someone with KT, so i think the chance given to him having KT should be heavily discounted.
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