Thread: Lucky or good?
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Old 03-04-2004, 12:51 PM
Al_Capone_Junior Al_Capone_Junior is offline
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Default Re: Lucky or good?

there was 2700 preflop, plus 6000 to you, makes for 8700:6000 odds, or 1.45:1. With 11 outs you had a 41.7% chance of making your hand with two cards to come*.

0.417 x 8700 - 0.583 x 6000 = 3627.90 - 3498.00 = -230.1

so you had a "slightly" negative EV on the hand. It was a coin flip essentially, something you should generally avoid for all your chips unless you are getting a decent overlay, which you were not.

That should answer your question.

al

* from the chart in HPFAP. The two dimes anaysis gave these results:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=229960
pokenum -h ac as - ah 7c -- 7h th kh
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Kh Th 7h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ac 554 55.96 427 43.13 9 0.91 0.564
7c Ah 427 43.13 554 55.96 9 0.91 0.436

Using 43.6% instead of 41.7% it would probably be very close to 0 EV.
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