Re: Verify my straight draw calc?
4*4*40/C(50,3) isn't quite right because it double counts flops where you have two 6's or 7's. I.e. it counts 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] as different from 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Here is the correct way. First, take the 67X combinations where X isn't a 5,6,7,T or one of the two cards in your hand. That is simply 4*4*34 = 544 combinations. Then add the 667 combinations, C(4,2)*4 = 24 and 677 combos, also 24. Total combinations = 592. Probability = 3*592/19600 = 9.06%.
Don't forget about the 8 out double gutshots as well. For 89 you can flop 6TQ or 57J. That adds another 2*4*4*4 = 128 combos. Total probability of flopping an 8 out straight draw = (592+128)/19600 = 9.71%.
If your cards were suited you would have to subtract those times that you flopped a flush.
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