Re: Value bet the river? (LONG, with numbers)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Arn't you making a pretty big assumption in assuming he will always bet the turn? Against 3 opponents, I don't think he bets the turn that often.
[/ QUOTE ]
Sorry, I didn't mean to imply that I'm assuming BB will always bet the turn, though I'm hoping he will (so I can see if UTG raises or not).
But I do think the BB will bet the turn quite a bit here. If he has an overpair he almost certainly will, possibly even an underpair. If he has AK or AQ, I think he has to take another shot. There's a not insignificant chance his A high is still best (remember with the paired board only 5 cards in his opponents hand can hurt have A high beat) - the board is extremely draw heavy so he doesn't have to assume his A is behind.
[/ QUOTE ]
If an overpair bets the turn, and you are raising, that is bad news for you. Most underpairs don't raise like that from the BB. He may bet other holdings, but against 3 opponents, and way OOP, a lot of people don't bet again. Plenty of times he is checking the turn, and then you don't get to raise. This is why I prefer a flop raise.
|