Re: Doubling up early MORE than doubles the ROI of a winning player
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Maybe there is some flaw here in my reasoning, and maybe expected winnings is really the important thing, not ROI. I’ll leave it to others to tear apart.
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The flaw is: The tournaments in which you win the flip is offset by the tournaments in which you lose the flip.
That the per tournament ROI more than doubles after winning the flip isn't what you should use to decide whether to take the flip. The expected ROI pre-flip is what matters, and that is dependent on a probability weighted EV calculation.
386*0.55+0.45*0 < 210*100
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