Imperfect Information, dude. Imperfect Information.
Haven't read all the other posts yet. But the answer is imperfect information.
The SOB check raises you. Is he trying to knock you out and protect his mediocre hand, or trying to get more money in the pot with his monster?
You have QQ and an ace falls on the flop. He bets. Does he have it? Or is it a bluff? How do you know.
Unlike chess, and somewhat more like financial trading, you don't have all the facts. It is a guessing game in many situations. And like financial trading, best you can do is estimate.
That, I believe is the bottom line on the subject.
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