[Buzz]

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What's the probability that a set on the flop will make either a boat or quads in 08?

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Billy - Basically you need the board to pair on the turn or river.

There are three cases.
(1) You can flop a set with no other cards in your hand of the same rank as the two other board cards.
(2) You can flop a set with one cards in your hand the same rank as another board card.
(3) You can flop a set with two cards in your hand the same ranks as the two other board cards.

Case one: 341/990 is probability of improving to quads or boat.
Case two: 306/990 is probability of improving to quads or boat.
Case three: 270/990 is probability of improving to quads or boat.

Do you want odds?
Case one: 649/341 = ~1.9 to 1 are odds against improving to quads or boat.
Case two: 684/306 = ~2.2 to 1 are odds against improving to quads or boat.
Case three: 720/270 = ~2.7 to 1 are odds against improving to quads or boat.

Unless you’re going all in on the second betting round, usually you should want odds of making your hand on the turn, and then, assuming you missed your hand on the turn, in a separate transaction, you’d want odds of making your hand on the river. But that’s not what you asked for. Whatever.

I don’t need any extra credit. Maybe someone else will do that part for you.

Buzz