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Old 01-20-2005, 07:39 PM
Slim Pickens Slim Pickens is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Las Vegas, NV
Posts: 786
Default Re: Full house odds in O8 (cross posted from Probability)

I'll try. No promises as to correctness.

[ QUOTE ]
What's the probability that a set on the flop will make either a boat or quads in 08?

[/ QUOTE ]
Assuming you don't already hold any of the potential board pair cards, you have 7 outs.

full house (read or better) on turn: 7/45=15.6%
full house on river given none on turn 10/44=22.7%

turn or river: 0.156+(1-0.156)*0.227 = 34.8%


[ QUOTE ]
For bonus points, if there are two low cards out when you flop top set, what are the chances that no low will be possible if you fill up.

[/ QUOTE ]
Assuming you hold 4 high cards...
given full house on turn, low appears on river 24/44=54.4%
given full house on river, low appears on turn 24/45=53.3%

1-[(0.156*0.545+0.533*0.227)/(0.156+0.227)]=46.2%


Slim
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