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Wong's SSB book has reasonably good charts for historical ATS and totals in the NFL.

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Sort of different sports but... in Maryland v. Gonzaga NCAA hoops game, how would you approximate the probability that Maryland wins by exactly 1 or 2 points? How about Maryland winning by exactly 3 points? A typical line right now is Maryland -2.5.

I have the following wagers:

Maryland pk @-133 Wagered 1130.5 to win 850
Gonzaga +3 @-107 Wagered 1070 to win 1000

I am risking about 125 to hit Gonzaga +1, +2 or +3.

If Maryland wins by 1 or 2, I win 1850 (probability = p)
If Maryland wins by 3, I win 850 (probability = q)
Neither, I lose 125.

Assuming p is about 2*q, I need q to be about 2.54% to break even in the long run.

Winning or losing proposition? What do you guys think?