Re: Preflop with 88
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You seem to be being a bit generous when estimating the number of bets, which you could expect to collect if you make your set IMHO.
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What your counter-estimate be? (Remember that this is an 'average' guess, so you need to balance the times that you get bonus action and the times you get no action.)
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Aaron,
The pot size is basically going to be the average pot size when a big field is 3-bet. I'd ballpark maybe 10-11BB, but probably not 13-14. If we also account for the 25% of the time that your set is cracked, we'd need an even bigger average pot, ne c'est pas?
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I believe that 25% is waaaaaaay over the top. When you flop a set, I would think you get cracked closer to 10-15% of the time (about half of your estimate). Obviously, this number shifts with the number of villains in the pot, but I don't think losing 25% with your sets is very reasonable. (Note: A set is not the same as trips.)
If someone with some substantial PT stats could write a script to isolate sets, I would be interested in seeing some numerical data...
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