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Old 10-03-2005, 10:07 PM
NoChance NoChance is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: MN
Posts: 363
Default Re: NFL Team Rankings

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How are you getting negative numbers? I was expecting the average team to be 2.5 (avg offense = 1, avg defense = 1, winning% = 0.5).

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If I did it that way, win percent would not have enough weight. I had to use 'avgoff - 1' and '1 - avgdef' to bring those numbers down. So, 1.050 on offense would actually be a 0.050 rating. 1.050 on defense would actually be a -0.05 rating. Oh hell, here is what I have for each team for ratings:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> Teams OFF DEF
Arizona 0.7098 1.1055
Atlanta 1.0750 0.7284
Baltimore 0.5854 1.0722
Buffalo 0.6965 1.0494
Carolina 1.1040 1.1793
Chicago 1.2632 0.7452
Cincinnati 1.2568 0.6746
Cleveland 1.2500 1.0696
Dallas 0.9823 1.0466
Denver 1.0289 0.7338
Detroit 0.8136 1.1391
Green Bay 0.7722 1.1442
Houston 0.6141 1.0000
Indianapolis 0.9610 0.4502
Jacksonville 1.0206 0.8707
Kansas City 1.2215 1.1556
Miami 1.1809 0.9203
Minnesota 1.1278 1.2776
New England 1.1024 1.0649
New Orleans 0.7486 1.0156
NY Giants 1.3737 1.0710
NY Jets 0.6431 1.0294
Oakland 0.8563 0.9418
Philadelphia 1.2141 0.8267
Pittsburgh 1.0776 0.7872
San Diego 1.3333 0.9288
San Francisco 0.8064 1.4232
Seattle 1.2699 1.0883
St. Louis 0.8700 1.2507
Tampa Bay 0.9240 0.8282
Tennesee 1.0795 1.3127
Washington 0.7963 0.6008 </pre><hr />

As the season goes on, the numbers become tighter and tighter. You can see teams like KC who are over 1.0 for both stats generally have higher scoring games. You can also see how Indy has actually scored less than other teams against those same opponents while giving up only half what the other teams normally score. I've used this to generate lines and totals for wagering over the years and it usually is within 2 or 3 points when I create my own lines.

Anyway, the ratings will change as the season goes on but a few teams caught me by surprise the way they have played this year so far. I like numbers. It's fun for me.

By the end of each year, the team with stats similar to what Atlanta has on this list usually win the superbowl. I won a lot of money when Tampa Bay crushed the Raiders a few years back because this showed me they should have been favored. It's usually a team that scores about 1.07 on offense but is 0.80 or lower on defense.

Edited to add: the reason for the negative numbers is because anything less than 1 on offense is a negative and anything higher than 1 on defense is a negative. I added multipliers which is why the positives and negatives are not equal. If you look at last year's rankings, they are pretty close to most would expect.
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