[marv]

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I couldn't reasonably expect your edge as a heads-up player to be so great so as to overcome the rake, due to variance.

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Variance has nothing to do with whether your edge exceeds the rake.

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Surely it does. Lets say you play a game in which you are 100% to win over your less skilled opponent.
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This isn't a very good way of measuring skill HU.

Better is to estimate your EV advantage against him over one hand. Playing HU, unless you want to be eaten up by the rake *very* quickly, you'll find yourself playing at level at which the rake gets capped on almost every hand the SB doesn't fold immediately.

Then you can adjust your win rate for the rake just just lowering your EV per hand.

Marv