Re: Is there anybody going to listen to my story
Let's say his hand range is 55, 44, 54s and A3s. There is only combo of 54s left (hearts), and there's a strong chance he wouldn't play that from his position and also may not have played it so strong on the turn so let's simply ignore that hand.
A3s is pretty unlikely given his turn and continued river action so we'll give that a zero probability as well.
As for 55 and 44, the hand combinations suggest it's 3:1 in favor of 44 but he *might* have slowed up on the turn with it (fearing quads or set over set).
However, I don't think he slows down often enough to reduce it to 1:1 and I also think if hero 3-bets, 2 more bets are going in whether he holds 55 or 44 - so it's not like you gain one when ahead, lose two bets when behind.
Given these assumptions, I like a 3-bet.
Luke
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