Re: Tell me I\'m wrong
Yes, you are wrong. I'm too lazy to comb over your math too thoroughly but I did notice one elementary mistake: you can't assume your opponents have a normal distribution of "your" suit in their hands if two of your suit hit the flop. The fact that you caught your flush draw at all makes it slightly less likely others were dealt that suit, though I don't know quite how much it matters.
Intuitive explanation: It does not matter where the cards are that you have not seen, only that they exist. Look at it this way; would the calculation be any different if the dealer burned 19 cards and then dealt the 20th as opposed to just dealing the card off the top of the deck? Obviously not. So why does it matter if the first 18 cards went to other people instead?
Mathematical explanation: I started to do this but it got hairy and I don't like posting things if there might be errors if I'm tired. I'll post it tomorrow if you want.
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