Re: Queens.
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Why?
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Ok, lets run through the hand.
Skeme has posted no read so we shall assume that we have no read. UTG+1 limp-calls, this is very standard for a pocket pair, I cannot assume UTG+1 has much else because I haven't seen him get out of line or play monsters passively etc, he could, however, for arguements sake have some sort of SC.
On the flop UTG+1 bets weak, god knows why, maybe he thinks his pair is still good? maybe he completely missed and wants to take the pot.. maybe he hit a part of the board and wants to build the pot.
So we raise, QQ is still likely to be favourite here, villain could have anything from a draw to a set. He calls.
The turn is a not so pleasant 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] that pairs the board, UTG+1 leads for 2/3 pot, now it makes absolutely no sense here to lead here with a draw so I think we can eliminate any sort of flush / straight draw (note that villain in this hand may have ended up having a draw at this point, the fact is we cannot assume that he does).
Ok so hes lead into us for 2/3 pot on a paired board after we raised the flop, hes telling us hes strong, lets try to establish a hand range for villain;
We are behind:
TT, 88, 5x
We are ahead of:
Tx, 8x, JJ.
Now we try to make sense out of which hands are more likely to fit this line, I think out of all the hands we are ahead of, JJ makes the most sense, Tx is only likely if villain is bad or if hes testing us with AT, 8x if hes awful (where x does not give villain two pair or a house).
Lets look at the hands we are behind, yes thats right.. you guessed it, they make a lot of sense. 5x is debatable, and more unlikely than the other two, but within reason. 88 and TT make a lot of sense because thats exactly how they should be played pre-flop, and hes shown a lot of strength post-flop. So thinking the hand through we are able to deduce that we are going to be behind more times than we are infront.
Despite what I have just said, thats assume for one second that we are behind 50% and infront 50% of the time, do we see villain putting more money in this pot with JJ for instance? Maybe, but most of the time this guy will close up shop if you call this turn or raise. Does he put more money in with hands we are behind? Yes we losing more money on the river if we decide to call the turn.
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