Re: The old coin-flip debate
You can never *know* of course, if it's a coin-flip, until you see the other-opponent's cards (whether you called, or he called your push). But against most opponents, you might have a strong enough "feel" of their pushing (raising) and calling standards, and have a pretty good guess of where you would "normally" stand.
Aleo is saying, for instance (he would say it better than me, and I hope he'll reply in this thread), that calling all-in on the bubble, with equal stacks, when you hold 99, is a wrong move, because most of the time you'll be in a coin flip situation (i.e, against over-cards), or worse: bigger pair (However, since it's short handed, and high blinds, you can not put your opponents on big pair every time they push, and it's much more probable they are on over-cards. Hence, coin-flip). Calling with 99, according to some assumptions, is -$EV. You're losing money, despite the fact you're probably getting the right, if not good, pot-odds.
Now comes the more subtle point of what is your read on the raiser "looseness". With what Ax will he push? Will he push with any A? any pair? etc. If he will, many times you'll be in a far better than coin flip - 7:3 or much better. Does it worth the call? Do you still consider it as a coin-flip in normal circumstances? is it +$EV? Marginally +$EV? Auto-call? That was the point of my post (or some of it). I hope this is more clear.
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