[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
P is probability villain has made flush
P1 is probably villain has one heart
36 blanks - we lose 1bb
6 clean straight outs - we lose 2bb (what's the line?) P times, win 7.5 bbs (1-P) times
2 dirty straight outs - we lose 2bb (line?) P1 times, win 7.5bbs (1-P1) times
2 queens - we lose 2bb P times, win 7.5 bbs (1-P) times

EV=(36/46*-1)+(8/46*(P*-2 + (1-P)*7.5))+(2/46*(P1*-2 + (1-P)*7.5))

it appears after looking at this that ev is neutral at about P=1/3 and P1=2/3. I don't think we're that good.

[/ QUOTE ]
With 10 unknown hearts in the deck, there are 10 choose 2 ways for him to have a flush, so if we assume he calls with any two suited cards preflop there are about 90 ways for him to have a flush. However I think it's more correct to say he usually folds the lowest suited connectors, but calls with any suited ace and some other connectors and one gappers-
A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]X[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] - 9 ways
J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] plus the 8 9 or T - 3
T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] plus the 9 or 8 - 2
9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] plus the 8 or 7 - 2
8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] plus the 7 or 6 - 2
7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] plus the 6 or 5 - 2
6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] plus the 5 - 1
so likely 21 ways for him to have a flush


Other hands I put him on
T4s - 2 discount to 1
QT - 9 (3 times has one heart)
KQ - 9
K4s - 2
KT - 9 (3 times has one heart)
44 - 6
TT - 6 (2 times has one heart)
QQ - 6 discount to 3
KK - 6 discount to 3-
J9 besides Jh9h - 9 discount to 5 because of preflop call
(5 discounted to about 3 times has one heart)
AK - 12 discount to 4 because of postflop action (has one heart 4 times discounted to 1)
AJ besides A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] - 15 (6 times has one heart)
KJ - 12 discount to 3 because of postflop action (3 discount to 1 time has one heart)
A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] plus a T Q or K offsuit - 8 discount to 4 because of postflop action (4 times discount to 2 has one heart)

So by the hand range and discounts I have so far:
P = 21/(21+56+19)
= 21/96
= 0.219
P1 = (3+3+2+3+1+6+1+2+21)/(21+56+19)
= 42/96
= 0.438


The problem with analysing this type of hand this way is it's very difficult to come up with the exact correct hand range and discount the combinations properly as well. So, please if you guys would let me know where I need to add in new hands, take some out or discount some in different ways and we can continue to have productive discussion about this hand. But if the numbers for P1 and P2 are correct and my assumptions are close it looks like we have a pretty solid call here on the turn.

I think a good starting line for the river would be to raise a nonheart A or 9 and call a three-bet (although it might be correct to fold to the threebet), and to just call the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. On the two queens, if we can raise/fold to threebet which seems likely then that's probably going to be best.