[jba]

[ QUOTE ]

I would give usmore than six outs, here, maybe 6.5 for our straight outs and another 1 for our Q outs. Add in the fact that we get to act last on the river and I don't think folding the turn can be right. We have to figure out how to play the river which is probably going to be tough but still I think we have too many outs here to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

let's figure this out.

P is probability villain has made flush
P1 is probably villain has one heart
36 blanks - we lose 1bb
6 clean straight outs - we lose 2bb (what's the line?) P times, win 7.5 bbs (1-P) times
2 dirty straight outs - we lose 2bb (line?) P1 times, win 7.5bbs (1-P1) times
2 queens - we lose 2bb P times, win 7.5 bbs (1-P) times

EV=(36/46*-1)+(8/46*(P*-2 + (1-P)*7.5))+(2/46*(P1*-2 + (1-P)*7.5))

it appears after looking at this that ev is neutral at about P=1/3 and P1=2/3. I don't think we're that good.

maybe you have a good river line though?