[einbert]

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-If an ace comes, the pot is either split or you are beaten most of the time...

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-If a 9 comes, even worse...the best you could probably hope for here is a split pot...

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So it's impossible for my opponent to play KQ, QT or KT this way? What about T4 Q4 or K4? They all make sense and an ace or nine gives us the whole pot against all of these hands. Sure he has a flush some of the time but even a passive player doesn't need one to checkraise here.

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-If a Q comes are you going to be comfortable raising this river? Check call?

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I'm not always comfortable with every single play I make, but just the fact that playing a river Q makes me "uncomfortable" is not enough reason to discount my Q outs to less than 1.

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-then there is the chance he has a made flush and you're drawing dead

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Sure we are drawing dead some portion of the time.

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I didn't put any % on the above chances because it would be completely arbitrary,

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Actually it's totally essential if you want to come up with a real mathematical answer to this problem rather than just a problem based on your gut reaction. Take the time to do some math work on the problem and then you can figure out what is really correct. Gut instinct betrays us far too often, especially in tricky situations like this.