Re: Game theory football
My bad. I didn't read carefully enough. I assumed that a 12 yard pass from the 2 would still be in the endzone, although I didn't assume that from the 1. Of course, that doesn't matter, because you never pass from the 1.
I think most people would take the offense, not knowing the numbers, and would play this game very badly. I think most people would pass too much. Throwing away game theory, I bet you win against most first time offensive players by playing pass every down. Not many guys would run more than twice out of four downs, especially if he's got relatively long yardage, and two runs give him only 1/6 chance of winning if you play pass defense all the time.
On offense, I'm guessing most first time defenders would start with Pass defense, so I run. If I'm wrong, or get a low roll, I stick with the run. If I'm right, or get a high roll, I switch to pass.
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