[elindauer]

Hi lil feller,

This is the kind of heads up line I've been exploring a lot in private recently. I'll quickly say that I like your play up to the river. I think your hand ranges are a little tight, but I'll work with them.

Now, what to do on the river? Will she fold JJ-QQ? Will she call ace high? Will she bet JJ-QQ if you check? Will she bet ace high?

You really just don't know the answer to any of these questions. You need to find them out. Until that time, the best strategy is a mixed strategy.

Personally, I like a bet. I want to know if she'll call with ace high. That changes a lot of how I handle the blinds heads up, since it makes it much harder to bluff. So I start there.

Now, if she raises, I like a call. I'll be in the minority here, and I agree the call looks like a long shot. If she's bluffing though, I find out right away what she can do. If she's not, I plant a major message in my opponent's mind. Do not bluff me. I will call. This lets me fold with much more confidence for some time to come.

I think a proper mixed strategy is to check-fold sometimes, check-call sometimes, bet-fold sometimes, and bet-call sometimes, given that you don't know what she'll call with, what she'll bluff-raise, etc etc.

Based on intuiton, I'll throw out some numbers:

check-fold 10%
check-call 30%
bet-call 10%
bet-fold 50%

You can flip a coin or whatever if you don't want to outguess your opponent. If you do want to outguess them and want to go my route, go bet/call. Bet/fold is probably the highest EV play if you took the hand in a vaccuum, but you'll have no idea next time she raises you what to do. Better hope you have a monster next time so you get to see her cards, or good luck guessing, because you've made it clear you can laydown a hand, but you don't know if she'll notice.

Good luck.
Eric