Re: Conditional probability question - Hold \'em
You don't need to use Bayes' theorem.
That is, if you assume random hands. If you are taking into account the probability that the hands that were folded on the flop did not contain an A, then you could use Bayes' theorem, but you would need more specific information about the hands your opponents play. The probability that an A is out would then be much more likely.
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