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Old 12-25-2005, 04:42 AM
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Default Re: schneids vs me had dark bet and call on flop and turn...

I honestly dont see how schneids can have TT. First off I dont know him or his game, but I dont think hes calling the flop with TT on an AJx board. And if he did make this flop mistake, not raising the turn when he hit would be even a bigger mistake IMO since he should know that you can have all kinds of holdings that will call this turn raise, like AK,AQ,AJs, maybe even KK or QQ hoping to hit a 6 outer. Given all these holdings you can possibly have that will give schneids action and given the fact that any K or Q on the river will likely kill Schneids action, just calling the turn and waiting to raise the river with TT on that board would be a horrible play IMO. So if Schneids has TT he wouldve made a bad play on the flop and a bad play on the turn which is why I dont think Schneids had TT afterall.

Which means Schneids has to have AJ here? Lets see if this hand makes sense. PREFLOP: certainly. FLOP: Just calling and waiting til the turn to raise is a reasonable play. TURN: Not rasing here again does not make sense, since he should assume that even if you had a hand like KK or QQ your likely to call the turn raise hoping to hit one of your 6 outs and if you have AK or AQ your not going anywhere, so once again Schneids has his market on the turn yet he doesnt cash in. I think on the river Schneids wouldve played AJ and TT the same way.

Mathematically speaking Schneids is 60% likely to have TT and 40% to have AJ. Logically speaking, on the flop AJ makes more sense than TT, on the turn both hands dont make sense, and on the river both hands are logical. Since I think both hands were misplayed, logical analysis cant really help here, so going by math and what Schneids said, I would assume He did indeed have TT afterall.
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