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Old 12-12-2005, 12:49 PM
jba jba is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 672
Default Re: KQo - Not interesting but wondered.

sorry to bring this back to the topic at hand, but I think the flop on this hand is very interesting. I'm not sure I like calling the flop here

you're getting 14-1 immediate, but after you flat call, the button is basically guaranteed to pop you with any A. if you assume he is 3betting you PF with 99+, KQ+, AJ+, he is going to raise TT(3)/AA(3)/AK(9)/AQ(9)/AJ(9) and not raising with JJ-KK(6*3)/KQ(9)

so i'm guessing you're getting popped 33/60 times and not 27/60 times

14-1 when you don't get popped
17-2 when you do

you have about 5.5 outs which is about 7.5:1

ev=33/60*((1/8.5*14)-(7.5/8.5*1))+27/60((1/8.5*17)-(7.5/8.5+2))=0.0235294118

there is a chance this gets 3bet or capped, but our implied odds are pretty awesome here and definitely make up for it, the flop is a marginal but good call I think
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