Re: 83s
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The question you need to ask yourself is is flopping a draw that PAYS FOR ITSELF worth it when I flop it 1-8 and the pot offers me 1-7.
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I have no idea what "pays for itself" means, but the thinking here seems very fuzzy. You are "drawing to a draw" which is not a winning hand. Heck, even the eight-high flush you are hoping to make might not be a winning hand.
Here is an analogous situation. The cutoff and button limp, the small blind completes and I check 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in the big blind. The flop is 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. It's checked to the cutoff who bets and it folds back to me. The pot is offering me 5:1 and roughly a fifth of the time the turn card will give me a flush draw. If I pick up a flush draw, that will be a profitable situation. So you would recommend calling here since the flush draw will be profitable and I am "getting odds to draw to it"? This really doesn't make sense.
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By pay for itself all I mean is futher bets are subsidized by your pot equity. So those extra bets are not really a cost so to speak.
Why do we say we need to make up bets when we flop a set. That's because we know the exact odds of hitting a set and it's easy to figure out how many bets we need to make up on each hand.
Now we can do the same thing with flush draws except it's more difficult to figure out the EV since we don't win the hand. We just have to estimate how much we win.
What I do know is that flush draws are profitable in almost every situation. So what do you think the EV of each flush draw is? 1 SB? 2 SB? 5 SB? I'd guess it's around 4 SB. You get a lot of implied odds generally. I just looked in my database and I win about 5 BB with each flush.
Therefore if we win on average 5 BB with each flush. Each draw is worth about 5/3 BB. We are getting 8-1 odds to flop the draw but we win 3.33 SB each time we actually flop a flush draw. For a tidy profit of 1.33 SB.
I'm pretty tired so some of this could be wrong. I'll try and correct any mistakes you see.
Krishan
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