View Single Post
#3
12-12-2002, 01:21 AM
 BruceZ Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 1,636
Re: I need the math, 4 cards to a flush and 3 left to draw.

As an example, let's say that on your first draw there are 8 flush cards out of 38 available, on your second there are 7 of 33, and on your last draw there are 7 of 30. Then the chances of you hitting your flush are:

p = 1 - (30/38)*(26/33)*(23/30) = about 50%

I only read this because I was going to say I thought you were sandbagging. Since you answered vastly more difficult problems correctly, how could anyone be "much better" at this elementary thing? But the above is no good!. Unless I'm missing something or you're psychic, how can you know on 4th street how many flush cards will be available on each future round? The correct probability of making your flush by 7th street if there are 8 unseen flush cards out of 38 unseen cards (meaning you see 8 of your opponent's cards and there is 1 flush card out in addition to your own, is

p = 1 - (30/38)*(29/37)*(28/36) = 51.9%