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#2
12-11-2002, 10:39 PM
 PseudoPserious Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 151
Re: I need the math, 4 cards to a flush and 3 left to draw.

Hi Fly,

Here's the easy way:

Calculate how likely it is NOT to fill out your full. Call this q. Then the probability p of filling your flush is

p = 1 - q

To find q, you need to multiply the probability of not drawing your flush suit on each of your draws. We'll call those three probabilities q1, q2, and q3, one for each of the draws.

q = q1*q2*q3.

To find each qx, divide the number of non-flush cards (mx) by the total number of cards available for that draw (nx).

qx = mx/nx

So,

p = 1 - (m1/n1)*(m2/n2)*(m3/n3)

As an example, let's say that on your first draw there are 8 flush cards out of 38 available, on your second there are 7 of 33, and on your last draw there are 7 of 30. Then the chances of you hitting your flush are:

p = 1 - (30/38)*(26/33)*(23/30) = about 50%

Hope this helps...if you have any questions, just ask irchans. He's much better at this than I am.

PP