[DesertCat]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't want to regret buying early, but don't want to regret not buying early when life catches up with me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I always regretted not buying earlier, when I was a young engineer (no really!) in Silicon Valley. The market had been flat for some years after a big run up in the 80's, and I probably would have done very well. So I always advise people to buy as soon as it is feasible. But your situation is quite a bit different.

I don't know of any way of determining when or if the Vegas market will ever retract. It's essentially supply/demand, and if you think they are running out of condo conversions, maybe supply will get short? Or maybe it will get soft because a bunch more are hitting the market soon? Are developers building a ton more? Can they get the land cheaply enough to build at the conversion prices or do they now need higher prices to build? I think if you can get a little data on those issues it might help make you feel more comfortable.

If it helps, once you move in, as long as you are happy and content staying there, you'll cease to worry about real estate prices until years later when you're ready to buy a house. Like I said before, if you will be happy there for five years plus, and the math works like you say it does, you should be okay.