[squiffy]

Two books I would recommend, though they don't fully answer your question are:

Irrational Exuberance by Robert J. Shiller who traces the history and causes of stock market mania. He discusses mania in prior historical periods.

Note Shiller is also very public about his opinion that many real estate markets are overvalued, and is trying to work on methods to hedge against a decline in real estate equity. This is discussed in the WSJ article I mentioned from 9/17 called "New Tools to Hedge Your Home" but I really don't think any of the products mentioned is all that helpful. They are too new and are not really focused on specific markets. BUt they are interesting to read about.

Another book, though I don't agree with all the author's conclusions, though his data is interesting -- is How to Profit from the Coming Real Estate Bust by John Rubino. It has some interesting statistics on real estate.

By the way, some people have said they don't find the WSJ all that helpful for stock investing. But I would highly recommend reading it. I think if you want to be a successful investor, you really need to understand more about finance and economics in the U.S. and the world.

You need to understand real estate, stocks, retirement accounts, CDs, 401Ks, etc. And money management in general. And papers like the WSJ are an education.

It's just common sense that if you want to be successful in life, you need to work hard and study hard. And what sets humans apart from all other animals is our ability to think.

If you are NOT studying important things like finance and economics, you WILL PAY A PRICE, you just won't realize it until it's too late.

Oh well. They are taking away my soap box. So that's all for now.