Re: Easy turn check?
His stats dont look like a typical auto peeler to me so I think our fold equity is nil.
Hes pretty aggressive so we can expect to be raised on this turn a fair amount of the time, but I tend to think he raises a K on the flop pretty often. Combine that with his wide range, the presence of multiple draws and we actually appear to have a ton of equity. If you think you have any fold equity at all I'm very tempted to bet for value.
His river play is also worth a thought. He probably bets often when checked to, but how often when we hit can we successfully c/r? How often will he bet when checked to on the river with a worse hand than ours UI? What im getting at is that when we improve, we improve with scary cards that get scarier when combined with a turn c/c and were not particularily likly to get any value from hoping he bluffs.
This situation looks like a routine turn check in some ways but the specifics make me want to bet this one.
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