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Old 12-23-2005, 12:17 PM
Redd Redd is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 44
Default Re: quick poll -- 88 UTG+1

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I reraise 88 - against a table of total unknowns at 5/10 - because I suspect that my hand is better than the average hand UTG raised with in the first place.

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What sort of hand range do you put him on? Do you include 77? 66?

It seems a typical player wouldn't raise anything with an unpaired undercard in it here, and if we assume no lower pockets we're at best a coin flip against two overs, or at worst we're absolutely destroyed by a bigger pocket.

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At this unknown 5/10 table, I think utg could raise with: 66, 77, AK, AQ, AJ, A10, KQ, KJ, K10, QJ, QT, JTs, A8s. Some players will also raise with lower pairs, 109s, 98s, and any Axs, but they are probably in the minority.

I don't know if you're correct about the coin flip situation. Part of the equation is that I expect the unknown player will fold occasionally on the flop, and usually on the turn without help.

If villain has something like KT, I think there's a decent chance he may actually fold on the flop. So is KJ really a coinflip against 88 if the action stops on the flop? What about if the action stops on the turn?

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The coinflip situation is definitely dependant on how well the player plays postflop; my understanding is that each of your preflop equities are ~50%. But if we can cause him to make an unprofitable fold, this would shift things in our favor.

Conversely, if he can cause us to make an unprofitable call then things shift in his favor. This comes back to Stellarwind's mention of how it's harder for us to get away from our hand when he improves than it is for him to let go UI on the turn (actually resulting in implied odds in his favor).
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