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Old 12-15-2005, 06:47 PM
Roadstar Roadstar is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Canada
Posts: 158
Default Re: AK turn decision

[ QUOTE ]
SB in this hand is a solid tag who could very well be 2p2
BB in this hand is a loose donkey
The CO here is 21/7/1.5 or so

Hero is in MP with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

PREFLOP:
Folds to Hero, Hero raises, CO calls, folds to SB, SB calls, BB calls.

FLOP: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (8 SB)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, CO calls, SB raises, BB folds, Hero calls, CO calls.

TURN: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (7 BB)
SB bets, Hero....?

[/ QUOTE ]

What limit is this? Lets assume 2/4

Reads on post flop play and aggression on the two?

Lets first try to put CO and SB in a range of hands. Both of them seem to be reasonable players. With you open raising in the hijack, a lot of thinking/good players may 3 bet if they think you're on a steal w/ like 99 or 88.

CO's cold call, assuming hes reasonably good can mean: KQs, AJs, AQs. Its unlikely to be a pair TT or higher as you would be 3 bet. He could be cold calling with a mid pocket pair.

SB's cold call range is probably similar but he wouldn't be 3 betting mid pocket pairs, so 22-88 (maybe 99) is fair game, plus the big suiteds AJs, AQs and KQs

SB's check raise on the flop with a paired board smells like a small-mid PP. 66 is unlikely because of probabilities and also he will slowplay. TT also unlikely as one can easily 3 bet a hijack open-raise with. JJ+ unlikely for same reason.

CO's call could mean hes calling 2 overs with a backdoor flush draw.

SB continues with a bet on the turn you look like you have immediate odds to call but I'm concerned about a raise from CO. His hand range could easily have a Q which would have you reverse dominated AQ or KQ so your A and K outs need to be discounted. So I saw about 7 outs. Pot odds justify a call if you closed the action. In this case, you don't, I fold here. Unless your read suggests CO is not too aggressive on the turn so you don't end up putting in 2 bets.

This is a very close one and I wouldn't be surprised to see others advocating a call.
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