QQ Turns a set on a 4-flush board - overplayed?
At first glance, villain is an LPP fish. After about 40 hands he's 50/5/0.5 and he's going to showdown 45% of the time, although I'm not sure how accurate this read is. In a previous hand, villain came over the top with a massive overbet (50BB) to snap off my C/B on the flop, so maybe he's just been getting "good" starting cards that don't hold up.
I, on the other hand, have been playing very tight (VPIP 17%), but hyper-aggressive (AF 6.5). I've already taken one person's stack with a flopped straight, and I've shown down a couple of other good hands. As a result, I've got most of the table terrorized and they are avoiding playing against me, which has let me take down several pots by betting (sometimes I even had a hand [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]).
.25/.50 NLHE 6-max, 4 players
Hero has $82.36, UTG has $38.95
Hero is SB with Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Preflop: UTG calls, Button folds, Hero <font color="red"> raises to $2.75 </font>, BB folds, UTG calls
($6.00) Flop <font color="blue"> (2 players) </font>: T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero bets $4, UTG calls
($14.00) Turn: Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero bets $35 (this will put UTG all-in if he calls)
My thoughts at the time: The odds are that UTG does not actually have a flush, and if he does have the flush, he probably doesn't have the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Providing he doesn't actually have the A, this bet is VERY hard for villain to call. And if he does have the A, I have 10 outs to beat him.
Good? Or did I overplay it?
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