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Old 12-20-2005, 05:22 PM
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Default Re: JJ, early-mid tourney Party 20+2

[ QUOTE ]
Can I get a flop line from anyone? I'm saying that I think my best move is a big bet like pushing, or I suppose maybe 900. What would you do here?

I'll post what I did on the flop, and results later.

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okay here goes.

Alternatives, pushing, betting say 1/2, 2/3 or pot and checking.

judging by the action so far, villains range is a little foggy since the only info we have is his initial preflop 3 BB raise and his call to your reraise, then a check on the flop. This board has to be a little scary to villain for the same reason it is to you.

Scenario 1) Let's say villain has KK or QQ (1 club). The A would be intimidating to him but the draw to the nut or nearly nut flush as well as having a high pair could be a check/raise in waiting rather than betting out and having you fold (he is after all starting to become a short stack and hoping to double up). Don't think KK or QQ with a club would fold, so you are WB.

scenario 2) Let's say he has KK or QQ without a club. This is a spot where a push may be able to force villain off his hand. A on board and 3 to a suit.

scenario 3) Let's say villain has lower pair than your J's with a club. You are WA and a push could possibly scare him away (though with pot at 875 and him having to call off 1250 a donkey may think he has outs with club and call).

scenario 4) Ax, 1 club, he's gonna call no matter what (judging from preflop action) thinking he has enough outs if you have better Ax, leaving you with only 10 outs (close to 1.75:1, not favorable)

scenario 5) he has Ax, no club. some chance that he'll lay this down. Reads would help to know what he would do here, again this is scary board for him (although he can't possibly think you were re-raising with suited connectors, and would know you were on a draw). If he has strong A he'll probably call anything.

I think of all the hands that are possible, this early in the tournament, the only hands that call a push are a strong Ax, a set or a flush draw with KK or QQ (2 pair not likely from preflop action unless he is complete donkey).

I think a push makes your hand look a little weak like Ax and that you are trying to protect it and if he has AK, maybe AQ especially with club, he'll call. You can either keep this pot small or try and take it away right now. Right choice is probably to keep pot small, but I bet 500 and reevaluate from opponents play (probably going to call any push, because after all i am a donkey).
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