View Single Post
  #15  
Old 10-12-2004, 10:00 AM
Lawrence Ng Lawrence Ng is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Vancouver BC
Posts: 78
Default Re: A quick note about \"rareness\" of bets

Ed,

I understand fully what you are trying to explain here and I think it makes complete sense. But still, even with a solid big bankroll, let's say a 500 BB bankroll, wouldn't pushing thin edges with sligh +EV be too risky? I tend to think of it as a reward vs. risk factor and the risk factor is too high given the reward.

I can see how this would compare to a casino that houses a game that perhaps only has a slight edge (say 5%). But the house has an almost infinite bankroll and thus can sustain long term risk, or one that is very close. But say some super rich tycoon comes along and decides to gamble in the millions. This is going heavily influence the house's bankroll even though the house has a thin edge on the player.

So if I have 500 BB bankroll, and I keep pushing these thin edges as you describe it's going to effect my bankroll if things run bad in short or medium run. And given the nature of many loose low limit games bordering on lag most of the time, it's not that uncommon I think to to take a dip in the bankroll.

I don't know all the math behind this, but on any given week if I were push such thin edges and drop a good 100 - 150 BB running bad, then would the possible slight +EV gained offset the amount/risk I put forth? I don't think it's worth it so, but I could be wrong.

I've always advocated a style and game based on maximizing the edge and my +EV, not pushing thin ones.

Reply With Quote