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The flop came 5 9 J with 2 spades Bax bets 1500, the guy raises to 4500 , Bax reraises to 9k

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??????

In one breath, you are saying this guys has only showed down the nuts. In the other you suggesting Bax put him on a range of hands consisting of bottom set, Jx's, and draws. What about a set of jacks, why was that not considered?

I will say that Bax's observation that he had not played the nut flush draw like this in five previous opportunities is crucial to his decision here.