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Old 12-22-2005, 04:41 PM
StellarWind StellarWind is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 704
Default Re: fairly simple 20-40 hand

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very unlikely he just calls the flop with a T.

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Because? I sometimes call this flop with a ten intending to raise the turn.

More importantly, Villain did call the flop and he has to have something. There is no obvious reason why KT is raising the flop while 88 is raising the turn instead. The relative probabilities of a ten or pocket pair don't seem to have changed much from preflop:

AT: 8
KT: 8
QTs: 2
JTs: 2

88-66: 18

That's 20-18 in favor of the ten. Obviously you can adjust his starting standards a little but it should always come out about 50-50. We can also consider:

Flush draw AJ/KQ/KJ/QJ: 4

Clearly these aren't worth face value. Maybe I'll call them 2 and make it an exact 20-20 tie.

I think most posters are too optimistic. Your pot equity looks about 50% here. Further aggression is good if you can comfortably fold to another raise. Personally that idea doesn't thrill me. Further aggression is bad if he finds the fold with an underpair. That sounds like some posters I know with stats similar to Villain's.

I call this down but it's a close choice. You could reconsider after you see the river. Bet-folding could work if you caught something to represent, like an ace.
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