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Old 12-01-2005, 06:10 PM
W. Deranged W. Deranged is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 96
Default Re: Devastating 30 BB hand

Raising this turn is an absolute disaster.

You may have like 2-3 outs here or something. Calling the turn is hardly automatic. I think the turn is much, much closer to a fold than it is to a raise. Raising basically accomplishes nothing, as the pot is really big and it's unlikely you'll clean up outs by folding a reverse-dominating hand, and you're equity just isn't high enough to justify such aggressive tactical moves anyway.

I'm not sure what I think about the flop yet. It does seem too early to fold, and relative position sucks, and I generally don't like calling a bet on my immediate right with a ton of players left to act behind me. The presence of the spades (and no spades in our hand), the likelihood that in a 7 player pot we're reverse-dominated, and the possibility of a raise behind us (overpairs, set, flush draws are all possible raising hands behind us) means we're really in a terrible position. So it's not like we have 6 outs in a 14 bet pot putting in one bet. It's more like we have 3 effective outs having to pay on average more than one bet or something.

Oh, yeah, and even when we hit there are tons of redraws. And often we'll hit and lose.

So, fold the flop. Barring that, I guess raising the flop is next best. Given the way it was played, raise the turn.

So you put in nearly 5 BB here that you shouldn't have. I think your effective "Sklansky bucks" lose here may be somewhere in neighborhood of 2-2.5 BB total.
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