Re: Flop overbet
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if folding is a mistake, then it's probably only a small mistake;
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I strongly disagree. If he has AK, folding is a huge mistake. I'd be a 3:1 favorite in a huge pot. If he has A7, folding is a huge mistake. I'd be a 3.5:1 favorite in a huge pot.
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I disagree with your strong disagreement.
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Are my numbers wrong? They certainly make it look like folding could be a large mistake.
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Folding the better hand in this place is a small mistake. Sure, if you’re up against AK or A7 you’re a 4-1 favorite, but against most everything else that pushes this hard you’re a huge dog at worst and a slight coinflip dog at best.
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You have repeated that there are hands against which I am a small dog. I don't see any. Please give actual hands as examples of this.
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you don’t have a good idea of what he has + you have a huge pot to play with a marginal hand at best.
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I'm not in the habit of folding just because my hand is marginal, nor of getting involved because I have a strong hand. The question is how my hand compares with his range of hands, and how much each of us can get paid off.
A major part of the problem is to figure out the range of hands with which he might make this overbet. What hands do you think he has?
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It’s a mistake to overbet unless he has some sort of maniacal image and thinks he is going to get paid off.
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No, it's not necessarily a mistake. It might be a great bluff, as it would risk 32 BB to pick up 7.5 BB, but apparently many people would fold more than 80% of the time, and he might have some equity if called. It might be a great value bet if this gets the most money in on average with a monster. (See Ed Miller's article in this month's 2+2 magazine.)
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I think there are much better times than in this spot.
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Yes, calling all-in with AA a couple of orbits before was better. That is not a good argument against getting involved here.
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