Re: Flop overbet
Ok, here is my ridiculously long-winded reply. I apologize for the rambling..I tend to do that during midterms for some strange reason [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]
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if folding is a mistake, then it's probably only a small mistake;
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I strongly disagree. If he has AK, folding is a huge mistake. I'd be a 3:1 favorite in a huge pot. If he has A7, folding is a huge mistake. I'd be a 3.5:1 favorite in a huge pot. If he has T9, folding is a huge mistake. If he has 99, folding is a huge mistake. Only if I am up against a big draw such as a pair plus an OESD (87 or 88) or an OESD plus an overcard (A8) would our hands be about even, which would make folding a relatively small mistake.
While I'm toast against a set, straight, or overpair, I'm only a 2.5:1 underdog against two pair.
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I disagree with your strong disagreement. Folding the better hand in this place is a small mistake. Sure, if you’re up against AK or A7 you’re a 4-1 favorite, but against most everything else that pushes this hard you’re a huge dog at worst and a slight coinflip dog at best. If you could see his cards and know that you’re ahead, sure it’s a huge mistake to fold the better hand. But you can’t see his cards, and you don’t have a good idea of what he has + you have a huge pot to play with a marginal hand at best. Get involved in a thousand similar situations like this where you have a marginal hand vs a huge overbet on a straight board and you’ll see that folding isn’t a huge mistake. How many times out of this thousand is it a hand you’re ahead of? Not enough to make folding a huge mistake in my opinion.
Besides, what are you going to do? Cold calling would be bad because it’s now a huge pot and what do you do when an A, K, Q, J, 8, or 4 falls? Raising is bad because he gets to fold his complete bluffs and destack you with his real hands.
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Overbetting the pot to this degree is such a horrific FToP error that you will inevitably get Villain's money if he keeps doing this.
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First, I won't inevitably get his chips. Someone will get his chips, but not necessarily me. There are 4 other people at the table. My expected share of any chips I pass up here is quite small. (I had to quit shortly after this hand, too.)
Second, even if I think I'll get opportunities later, I should still make good use of my opportunities now.
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It’s a mistake to overbet unless he has some sort of maniacal image and thinks he is going to get paid off. Even so, I think it’s a bad bet. On top of that, its not set in stone that anyone has their name on his chips. You said it’s the first time he’s overbet like this, so we don’t know for sure that he’s a total jackass bent on handing out money to the table. So, what’s with all the rush?
I think there are much better times than in this spot. Calling this bet does not guarantee your winning of his chips. I know you know that, but still, I had to mention it. It’s not like you have aces. Even if he doesn’t have a straight or a draw + overcard, the tens you have are not worth much in my opinion.
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