[Buccaneer]

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........ution will be VERY wrong based on the fact that stronger initial hole cards are more likely to make it to showdown.


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I may be very wrong but of the 13% top hands very few are the nuts after the flop. Example flop 2, 3, 5 rainbow the nuts are trip 5's, which you would rarely play (does 55 qualify?) and even if you had AA you would be required to fold your hand against this board.

Here is something that I have been thinking about lately. Say we have another player type, lets call him:

Player D
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Preflop: Plays any two cards, calls any raise, rr, or cap.
Postflop: Continues to play from any position all calls, raises, rr, and caps. He raises any hand with paint, and raises any two with a frequency of 50%. He also has favorite hands which are always junk (72o, 39o, etc) but he has to raise because on time he won a pot with them. He will fold unimproved hands at the river if they don't contain an A, K, Q, J, or his lucky 5. He will not fold if he is beat as long as he has outs. He never goes on tilt and says nh when someone beats him with a runner, runner. His congratulations are sincere and from the heart. He is truely happy for anyone that hits a runner runner.

Ok now lets pretend that there are 6 player D types in every game at the .50/1 level games. We can probably call them fish instead of Player D. So we have 6 fish in the game and this causes a schooling effect. They school to protect themselves and confuse the fish that want to eat them. Now when they school there is a mysterious reflex that kicks in and they drop off a few at each street so that there is always two fish (Player D) flopping in the river with one of the predator fish. What they have mysteriously done is drop out one at a time and left the strongest one of them in the pot. Science has yet to explain this primative behavior but it is effective. So effective that the predators begin to fear the little fish.

Now what we have here is a shark that plays KQ in good position and 6 little fishes that play any two. If more than one shark trys to feed the little fish raise so that he has to cold call to play. So we know the shark has a 2:3 chance to see a crap flop and the six fish have the same chance individually but as a school they have an excellent chance of having one or more of them hit the flop hard. The flop is K, Q, 4. So going into the turn we have one shark and two fish that hit the flop and 1 fish that did not. The turn is an A and shark bets out and fish call and maybe raise. A couple of fish do fold and the river comes a very safe 3. Shark bets out and fish show him his 25o which is his favorite hand. He doesn't even have to win with it, he feels good just having the opportunity to watch its magic work.

Now what I have been wondering about is this: If shark has 4 outs to improve and the little fish have just 2 each how do they seem to concentrate all those outs into 12 outs on each hand that can beat you. It is like they have an out magnifying glass and they are burning the sharks with it.

I would like to see what the numbers on that would look like after someone ran them through a computer.