Re: JJ - flop all-in call
I think it's most likely a coin-flip at best or your dominated at worst. If your two assumptions are valid (ie your [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is good 50% of the time and he will make this play with hands like A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] some non trivial percent of the time) it's very close IMO.
Considering only overpair with heart / no heart it's slightly worse than a coin flip if the distribution is 50/50:
15,107,211 games 16.056 secs 940,907 games/sec
Board: Th 8h 7h
Dead:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 48.5234 % 48.22% 00.30% { AcAd }
Hand 2: 51.4766 % 51.17% 00.30% { JdJh }
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16,534,511 games 17.106 secs 966,591 games/sec
Board: Th 8h 7h
Dead:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 79.0963 % 78.79% 00.30% { AdAh }
Hand 2: 20.9037 % 20.60% 00.30% { JdJh }
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You're average equity is 36% or needing approx 2.78:1 to push.
If your FE is zero (which it likely is), you're getting 130:50 to push approx 2.6:1, so you're not quite there.
Now if we consider he makes this with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] even 10% of the time you're now breaking even:
10,930,720 games 12.437 secs 878,887 games/sec
Board: Th 8h 7h
Dead:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 43.8152 % 43.51% 00.30% { AhKc }
Hand 2: 56.1848 % 55.88% 00.30% { JdJh }
Equity = .45(case 1) + .45(case2) + .1(case3)
= .45(51.5) + .45(20.5) + .1(55.9)
= 23.175 + 9.225 + 5.59
= 37.99 or approx 2.63:1 to push.
So if he does this 10% of the time with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] you're now at zero sum EV.
I probably call this in the heat of the moment but it's very close, and much depends upon if your [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] really is good 50% of the time and he's willing to do this without an overpair. If he's got both you're in bad shape.
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