JBB,
Take a look at this:
http://www.sportsbook.com/sportsbook/lines_nfl.html

This is the percentage of action on every football game this week. It basically displays the week to week lopsidedness of every game. You see a couple games that are about 47/53, but there are a ton of games that are 70/30 or more lopsided than that. Well, normally, all those games listed, its a 50/50 shot which side wins. It just so happens the last couple of weeks, the dogs havent been covering. What happened, and this is the real reason that us bookies have been getting nicked up, is the fact that there are a bunch of people out there that were flush with cash last week/thanksgiving week etc, and really loaded up on their normal bets (which of course, are all fav pics) and hit at an unreal percentage. And (this is my theory, as its been happening to me), there is a lot of buzz around the bars, offices, what have you, about how much these douchebags are clipping the books for, so you have a lot of new blood, ie people who have never bet but due to such a luckbox streak of a friend, they decided to, so I am getting a lot more action than normal, and at a terrible time in the season. But, things will eventually go back to normal, and all those people that we have hooked will hopefully dump it all back and more. I hope that explains things.