[cartman]

I have never been a fan of the check-call, check-call, bet-fold line with KK or Ax on an Ace high board for a number of reasons. Below are three of them. There are some combinations of conditions which probably make this line optimal, but most of these combinations are rarely present in the online games familiar to most of us. First, we have to be able to trust our opponent to only raise the river with better hands than ours. Second, we have to estimate that he will call our river bet with more hands than he would have bet with if we had checked. Third, we have to believe that he is not only capable but likely to fold worse hands on the flop or the turn if we checkraise or donk when he would have kept betting with them otherwise.

The first one alone is very troublesome to me unless I have a fairly solid read on the opponent. It is a catastrophe to fold the best hand to a river raise. The second reason is also a problem, although it becomes less so as the skill level of our opponent increases. There are countless opponents who will bet every street here with any pair and many who will bet every street with any two cards if they have been shown no resistance after raising preflop. The third reason is similar to the second in that it is problematic against typically poor opponents and becomes more plausible against better ones who are more likely to check behind us on the turn with nothing hands and with pairs they would have paid off with had we checkraised the flop or donked the turn.

Conceptually speaking, I think many people see reference to "way ahead/way behind" and assume that these two scenarios are somewhat equally likely. They are not. In the typical "way ahead/way behind" situation in which we have Ax on an Ace high flop heads up against a preflop raiser, we have the best hand on the flop at least 2/3 of the time almost regardless of our opponents hand preflop hand range! That means we are "way ahead" twice as often as we are "way behind". So the issue of maximizing value when we are ahead far outweighs the issue of saving bets when we are behind.

Basically I think against opponents who can't be trusted to only raise the river with worse hands, when we have Ax or KK on an Ace high board there is usually at least one better line than check-call, check-call, bet-fold. Against opponents who hate to fold heads up and love to play back, I just checkraise the flop and go from there. Versus autobettors I usually either simply check and call every street or with my better kickers check-call the flop and turn and then bet-call the river. In the cases in which my opponent is a solid player I begin to check-call the flop and donk the turn with more frequency.

Cartman