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Old 02-02-2005, 10:41 PM
chris_a chris_a is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Eat fish twice a week!
Posts: 172
Default Re: My Aces are running baaaaad! Is it my fault?

Been meaning to respond for a while to this, just been busy...

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The pot is such on the turn that calling to see the river is at least as good as folding.

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Agreed.

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3-betting the turn probably isn't the correct play (from a pure strategy standpoint).

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This is the play in question.

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The best play in situations like this is to call the turn raise and fold the river UI (where UI = you don't make aces up).

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I don't think this is that clear cut. First of all, reraising does have one advantage that you didn't mention at all. That the player to my left is really bad and that he's going to call this because he's in to the river now. This is probably funding my opponent and me since he likely has few outs to beat me or him.

I would not fold unimproved after a pot like this since this guy would possibly try to make a move with Kx in this pot. There's also chances for him to have a flush draw semi-bluff, TPTK played aggressively. Yes the chances are small, but going to the showdown definite value here even UI. I'd have to have a really solid read to play it your way. Folding an overpair on a board like this to a turn raise and a river bet isn't clearly the best strategy here by any means.

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By dominated strategy I mean that there is another strategy that is "freerolling" it.

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While I understand and appreciate the concept of a dominated strategy (I have studied some game theory in my research), just saying that it's a "dominated strategy" isn't answering the question at all. It's like saying, My play is better than your play because yours is "Goobledygook" where "Goobledygook" is defined as a worse play. It doesn't say why.... Nowhere do you mention his reads (except for the implication that he could have junk two pair.)

Bringing the term "dominated strategies" into it adds nothing to the content of the hand discussion IMO.

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Putting 5 BB into this pot is crazy IMO.

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This isn't the way I like to think about my hands. I want to think about making the highest EV decisions as they come and not how many bets I'm putting "into the pot". If 3-betting isn't great on the turn, that's fine, but this is bad reasoning.

BTW, I really don't have any hard feelings about your post and I don't want it to come off that way since I've realized that my reply could seem a bit judgemental. I just want to get to the bottom of this because I'm not convinced by this response that 3-betting isn't right. Not yet at least.
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